Beyond their high electric vehicle uptake through 2019, the electric vehicle capitals
have set strong ambitions for future growth which drive city planning and policy to
accelerate the transition to electric vehicles. This section summarizes the goals and
targets of the electric vehicle capitals in terms of share of electric vehicle sales, electric
vehicle shares of on-road vehicles, and implementation of low- and zero-emission
zones. Setting all-electric goals is a critical initial step before establishing concrete
action plans, policies, and city agency responsibilities to put cities on a path to achieve
those goals. While most of the electric vehicle capitals established 100% electric bus
goals by 2018, 2019 saw many of the high electric-uptake markets embrace goals for
all-electric vehicle sales, stock, or usage within parts of the city.
With regard to goals and targets, Chinese cities operate under the unique Five-Year
Plan framework, which plot the country’s path based on a set of development goals.
Since the 14th Five Year Plan, which covers 2021 to 2025, has not yet been released,
most Chinese cities’ targets do not go beyond the 2020 horizon. The policies in electric
vehicle capitals in Europe and North America may offer useful references as cities in
China adopt their next far-reaching targets to accelerate electric mobility.
Electric vehicle sales goals. A first step on the path towards eliminating emissions
from cars in cities is phasing out the sale of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles.
Therefore, as a part of long-term transport decarbonization strategies, many cities
have set goals concerning the share of electric vehicle sales. Figure 4 illustrates
electric vehicle sales shares through 2019 for seven of the electric vehicle capitals with
future-year goals, which range from sales shares of 25% in 2025 (Liuzhou), including
passenger and commercial vehicles to sales shares of 100% as early as 2022 (Oslo). The
figure also includes the 2019 sales shares for each of these metropolitan areas, which
may differ slightly from the sales shares within the cities themselves.
The two cities which have the most rapid all-electric targets—Oslo and Bergen—are
also the cities ranked highest in terms of 2019 share of electric vehicle sales. The only
Chinese city that has set a goal beyond 2020, Liuzhou, is also the highest-ranking city
outside of Norway in terms of electric vehicle sales share. Liuzhou’s 2019 sales share
of passenger vehicles (24%) was close to meeting its 2025 target, suggesting that the
city could increase its ambition. The cities requiring the steepest rates of growth to
meet their goals are Tokyo (46% compound annual growth rate), London (32%), and
Los Angeles (30%).
Combustion vehicle phase-out goals. Most of the electric vehicle capitals outside of
China have set ambitious targets regarding the percentage of vehicles on the roads
that are electric and have developed phase-out plans for gasoline-powered cars.
Figure 5 shows the timing of cities’ 100% zero-emission goals for passenger vehicle
stock. Ten of the electric vehicle capitals have set goals for the complete phase-out of
combustion engine cars (five by 2030, one by 2040, and four by 2050).
Oslo
Bergen
Amsterdam
Paris
Stockholm
San Francisco Los Angeles
New York
Tokyo
London
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Figure 5. Targeted year of full electrification of vehicles on the roads in the electric vehicle capitals.
European cities are paving the way, with five capitals announcing an end to the use of
internal combustion engines in the city as soon as 2030. This mirrors a trend across
Europe, with many local and national governments setting long-term targets for a
combustion engine phase-out.10 Also shown, three U.S. cities and Tokyo, Japan, have
2040 or 2050 all-electric targets. Although not depicted in the figure, San Jose has
developed a detailed plan to move from 6% electric vehicle stock share in 2019 to 61%
in 2030 and 82% in 2050.
During the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020), cities in China set goals regarding
the share of all vehicles on the road (including cars, buses, and trucks) that are electric
for 2020: Shenzhen aimed for 3-5% of its vehicle stock being electric in 2020 and
Tianjin set the goal at 4.5%. During this period, electric uptake in China has generally
outpaced the 2016 expectations. For Shenzhen, the electric stock share of over 10% in
2019 was double its 2020 goal.
Low- and zero-emission zones. In order to increase electric vehicle uptake, many
electric vehicle capitals have begun implementing low- and zero-emission zones, which
only allow cleaner vehicles based on specified eligibility criteria within specified parts
of the city. Twenty of the electric vehicle capitals (all except Changsha and the U.S.
cities) have a low-emission zone in place. Six of the capitals (Amsterdam, London, Los
Angeles, Oslo, Paris, and Tokyo) have signed the Fossil Fuel Free Streets Declaration, a
Mayor-level commitment to procure only zero-emission buses from 2025 and ensure a
major area of their city is zero emission by 2030.11 Among those cities, Amsterdam has