When it comes to the future, according to the Global EV Outlook 2025, there are three possible scenarios:
1. The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
This scenario reflects existing policies and measures implemented by governments worldwide.
It suggests that by 2030, the global electric vehicle stock (excluding two/three-wheelers) will reach nearly 245 million vehicles and grows to 525 million in 2035, when one in four vehicles on the road would be electric. Sales share could reach over 50% in 2035.
2. The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)
This scenario assumes that all announced targets are fully met on time.
That makes the scenario a bit more ambitious. According to APS, by 2030, over 55% of new cars could be electric, with nearly 300 million EVs globally. APS would avoid 5 million barrels of oil use per day by 2030.
3. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE)
The NZE scenario assumes that Net Zero emissions will be achieved by 2050 and that global temperature increase can be limited to 1.5 °C.
NZE predicts that the global EV stock will have to reach 380 million EVs in 2030, with EV sales climbing up to 60% of all vehicle sales in 2030 if we want to achieve Net Zero by 2050.
This scenario highlights how big the gap between current measures and the Paris climate goal remains.
Of course, only time (and new data) will tell us which of these scenarios will become a reality. However, the latest trends are heading in the right direction.